Who is Afraid of the
Iranian Bomb?
By Uri Avnery, 28.10.08
AT THE height of the
epic Battle of Britain in 1940, when British airmen were killed at an appalling
rate ("never was so much owed by so many to so few"), an official in
charge of propaganda had a bright idea to raise morale. On the walls at the
Royal Air Force bases a poster appeared with these words: "Who is afraid
of the Ju-87?" (At the time, one of the most effective German planes.)
An anonymous pilot
penciled in: "Sign here!" Within a few hours, all the pilots of the
base had signed.
If today someone were to
hang a poster with the slogan "Who is afraid of the Iranian nuclear
bomb?" I believe that all the people in Israel, and many beyond, would
sign.
IT SEEMS that we
Israelis are always in need of something to be afraid of. When we open our eyes
in the morning, we must see the danger-of-the-day. Otherwise, what is there to
get up for? Perhaps it's not the public that is to blame, but the politicians
who use fear as a means of control.
Not so long ago, it was
Hizbullah. Muslim fanatics, crazy Shiites, who want to annihilate Israel. A
huge arsenal of rockets. God protect us!
In the meantime there
was a war, the rockets were launched, the damage to life and property was
comparatively slight (for those who were not hit, of course). The terrible
danger of Hizbullah was pushed into a corner. True, Hizbullah remained where it
has been, the rockets are being replenished and Nasrallah continues to
infuriate, but all this has ceased to evoke any real interest. A used danger is
not exciting anymore.
Now the army chiefs,
bankrupted in Lebanon, are making a big effort to create a new fear: Hamas in
the Gaza strip. Now, here we have an immediate and terrible danger. Tons and
tons of "regular explosives" are coming in through the tunnels. Any
moment now, Hamas will be equipped with modern anti-tank weapons, as well as
anti-aircraft missiles. Hamas is building underground fortifications. Isn't
that scary?
The military and
political parrots in the media are fully mobilized. This entire media parrotry
is repeating the bloodcurdling message morning, noon and night: Gaza is
becoming a second South Lebanon! Something has to be done! We cannot wait! The
army must go in, occupy the Strip, or at least parts of it!
Bur the public is not
really buying it. It is hard to create fear when the enemy is not able to shoot
back. Our aircraft and tanks and brave boys are killing there without
hindrance. So what is there to fear?
BUT THE Iranian story is
something else altogether. There is indeed cause for fear.
Here we have an enemy
who declares that he is opposed to the very existence of our state, and who may
soon be facing us with weapons of mass destruction.
The elected president of
Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is really enjoying letting loose provocative
declarations. That's his private hobby, but also a successful domestic
political ploy. He has said that the Holocaust did not happen at all, and if it
happened, it was smaller than announced, and the whole thing has to be
researched. He also prophesies the destruction of the "Zionist
regime".
To tell the truth, he
did not quite say that he intends to "wipe Israel from the map", as
was reported. According to the most accurate translation that I have seen, what
he actually said was "Israel will be wiped from the map of the
future". But that is scary enough.
It is scary because in a
few years, Iran may well have a nuclear bomb. It seems that this cannot be
prevented. 25 years ago, Israel bombed an Iraqi nuclear reactor. Iran has
learned the lesson and has distributed its nuclear facilities in many different
places. Israel's capabilities are not sufficient for their destruction. The appointment of
Avigdor Liberman, a proponent of Fascist ideas, as "Minister in Charge of
the Strategic Threat", does not change anything in this respect.
If Israel, which is only
the fourth or fifth military power on earth, cannot do it, what about the US,
the No. 1 in almost everything? Well, they are not able to, either.
Installations buried deep in the earth may not be destroyed, and the ensuing
war cannot be won without putting forces on the ground. And after the fiascoes
in Iraq and Afghanistan, there are not many sane American generals who long for
that.
So it is quite possible
that in a few years, the Iranian president will not only have boasts on his
lips but also nuclear weapons in his hands. And if that isn't scary, I don't
know what is scary.
IF SO, why am I not
scared?
I live in Israel, and I
fully intend to continue living here. Israel is a small country, and a large
part of its population lives in Greater Tel-Aviv. I live in the center of the
city, in what the Americans would call Ground Zero.
If a small and primitive
nuclear weapon of the Hiroshima type falls on the building where I live, a
large part of the Israeli population will be annihilated. Two or three such
bombs are enough to put an end to Israel (together with the neighboring
Palestinian territories).
But I don't believe this
will happen.
In order to believe in
such a possibility, one has to see the leaders of Iran as a bunch of lunatics.
In spite of the efforts of Ahmadinejad to convince us that he is mad, I am not
so sure.
I believe that the
Iranian leadership, and especially the religious-political leadership, is composed
of very sane people. Since assuming power, they have trodden with caution and
competence. They have not started any war. On the contrary, they boast that in
the last 2000 years Iran has not started any war at all. And in the Iranian
establishment, the president is just a politician who is completely subservient
to the Ayatullahs, who are in effective control. (Curiously enough, the same system prevails in our own
fundamentalist parties, Agudat Israel and Shas.)
I do not ignore what
Ahmadinejad has said. After Adolf Hitler and Mein Kampf, who would dare to
ignore such statements of intent? But the Iranian president does not have the
power of the German Fuehrer, the two countries are completely different, and so
are the historical circumstances.
The annihilation of
Tel-Aviv would inevitably bring about the annihilation of Tehran and the
precious treasures of the ancient and glorious Persian culture. In chess terms,
it would not be an exchange of queens, but an exchange of kings. It is much
more reasonable to assume that between Iran and Israel a "balance of
terror" will be established, like the one that prevented World War III
between the US and the Soviet Union, and that is now preventing a renewal of
the Indian-Pakistani war.
IN SPITE of this, we
should not wait inactively for the creation of a situation in which Israel,
Iran and perhaps Arab states like Egypt and Saudi Arabia will possess nuclear
bombs. The nuclear genie is out of the bottle, and is spreading throughout the
world.
If there is no military
option, what can be done?
In order to forestall
the danger, the main effort should be to make peace with the Palestinian
people, and with the entire Arab world. People like Ehud Olmert may delude
themselves that the Palestinian problem can be isolated from global and
regional processes. But the problem is influenced by many factors, which are in
constant flux.
The relative strength of
the US, our only ally in the world (except for Fiji, Micronesia and the
Marshall islands), is decreasing slowly but persistently. Iran is becoming a
regional power. The nuclear aspects give the historic conflict a new dimension.
As the Greek philosopher said: panta rhei, everything is flowing.
Generals can hallucinate
about a huge victory over Hamas in Gaza, Olmert can ask himself Hamlet-like
"to talk or not to talk" (with Mahmoud Abbas), but in the meantime
things are happening that ought to accelerate the achievement of a historic
reconciliation between the two peoples.
If the elected
leadership of the Palestinian people signs an agreement with us announcing the
end of the conflict, and if the entire Arab world makes peace with us along the
lines of the "Saudi initiative", the rug will be pulled out from
under the Ahmadinejads everywhere. If the Palestinians themselves accept the
idea of the coexistence of Israel and Palestine, and if Egypt, Jordan and most
of the Arab world endorse it, on behalf of whom will the Iranians liberate
Palestine?
In the framework of the
process of achieving Israeli-Palestinian peace, it will also be necessary to
examine the idea of creating a nuclear weapons-free region. Is effective mutual
inspection possible? Can there be iron-clad guarantees? At the moment, that is
difficult to assess. But it's worthwhile to find out.
ANYWAY, THERE is no
reason for apocalyptic nightmares. Even a nuclear bomb in Tehran's hands is not
the end of the world, and not even the end of Israel. A new situation will
arise, and we must live with it.
The fathers of Zionism
called on the Jews to take their fate into their own hands and return to the
stage of history, and those who followed took upon themselves all the dangers
involved. The world is a dangerous place, there is no existence without danger.
I only hope that we shall have the good sense not to increase the dangers that
are out there anyhow.
Like those brave British
airmen, we have the right to be afraid. But we must face the new situation with
a clear mind and sober resolution.